6Sense: Generating New Possibilities in the New Internet.
Produced by: IPv6 Summit, Inc.

United States IPv6 Summit reveals new Internet opportunities in North America
by Peter Sherbin
Consultant
Bell Canada

Where would you go for cutting edge information nowadays? Probably the next best thing to pro's mind is a PowerPoint capturing its originator's thoughts. Hence a "paronthology" (in Greek 'paron' means 'to present') or a true 21st century art of creating and processing presentations is blossoming on the need to share ideas at ever increasing pace.

But why on Earth would you spend months studying thousands of slides that talk about IPv6? In this case there was a combination of professional interest, excitement and respect. Anyone in the Internet industry can easily project professional interest. The excitement comes from IPv6 astounding address space, which allows networking virtually the whole known universe from molecules to stars. A marvel of that magnitude surely inspires respect. Even better it enthuses to an instant participation.

Here it goes. Broad up-to-date collection of IPv6 material produced by the U. S. IPv6 Summit over the last 2.5 years and posted at http://www.usipv6.com shares plenty of IPv6 ideas and opportunities with the wide Internet community from developers and implementers to end users.

IPv6 Summits that meet twice a year have been organized by Alex Lightman who is a chairman and CEO of IPv6 Summit, Inc. Since June 2003 five summits have hosted speakers from around the world discussing IPv6 progress. In addition there was IPv6 Day at Las Vegas CES in January 2004 and IPv6 Panel at CES in January 2005.

During these events over 170 industry experts have delivered 244 presentations flipping over 6200+ slides. Assuming that volumes fairly represent the amount of effort devoted to IPv6 emerging trends help painting North American IPv6 adventure.

Figure 1 below shows the total volume of IPv6 materials presented at a particular summit. Overall volumes increase at an annual compounded growth rate of (rounded) 6% with a prominent spike in June 2004.

Figure 1. The total number of slides presented at each U.S. IPv6 Summit. December 2005 is a forecast based on a trend.

Summits' speeches vary in their topics reflecting the vastness of IPv6 that ranges from protocol specifications through a country or an organization transition to specific implementations. At the same time four major areas of interest surface from the rich menu of discussions, namely Mobility, Security, Transition and Protocol.

Mobility includes everything related to Mobile IPv6 from tutorials to individual products. Absolute majority of Mobility slides has been produced by two or three individuals. Absence of even one of them at the summit would have had a major negative impact on volumes as seen in Figure 2 below.

Security is another category discussed by a limited number of experts primarily in a tutorial like form. Figure 2 indicates that interest in IPv6 Security experiences the fastest growth at 62% ACGR.

Transition absorbs the broadest range of topics such as customer requirements; transition mechanisms; test and production networks; interoperability; deployment; business solutions; IPv6 enabled hardware and software; implementation status; research roadmaps etc.

Protocol covers all materials related to IPv6 mechanics specified in IETF drafts, RFCs and standards; items addressed by IETF WGs as well as administrative aspects of the Internet.

Figure 2. Volumes of slides presented at IPv6 Summits and grouped by four categories: Mobility, Security, Transition and Protocol. Transition is the largest topic of interest with a steady annual compounded growth rate of 16%. Security appears to be the most dynamic area growing at an annual compounded growth rate of 62%.

About one hundred organisations have told their stories during IPv6 Summits. This small yet courageous community accounts for meagre 0.002% of the world active establishments (conservative projection based on the data from Statistics Canada as well as the U.S. Census Bureau). Figure 3 shows top ten entities by the presented volume. Consulting company Native6 Inc. keeps the first place generating 12% of the total slides. The Department of Defence with its subsidiaries, i.e. DISA, DoD Transition office, JITC, etc. have produced the second largest volume of 11%. Both IPv6 Forum and North America IPv6 Task Force together occupy the third place with 8% of the volume. Three hardware vendors combined (Booz Allen Hamilton, Juniper and Cisco) have generated 10% of all slides.

Figure 3. Organizations ranging by the number of presented slides.

Another interesting distribution in Figure 4 orders top 10 participating entities by the number of presentations. This time DoD with subsidiaries takes the lead delivering 34 or 14% of total discussions. IPv6 Forum and NAIPv6TF combined came distant second with 7% while Native6 Inc. takes the third place at 6%. A mix of hardware manufacturers has changed. Now it includes Cisco, Juniper, Nokia and HP. These four entities together had their speakers at the podium in 12% of all cases.

Figure 4. Participating organizations distributed by the number of presentations.

The above observations as well as a consensus on certain items throughout the material dare to hazard the following summary:

  • IPv6 introduces humankind to a new era where materialized benefits may well exceed outcomes of any invention known to date.
  • IPv6 Security and Mobility require further fixes and standardization. Both areas enjoy the closest attention from the industry.
  • Recognizing the opportunity Japan, Korea, and China in a swift move have established government programs driving IPv6 adoption. Outstandingly Japan as a nation is implementing a clearly stated vision to become the world's most advanced IT nation by 2005 and to realize the ubiquitous network society by 2010. IPv6 is the enabler of this thrust.
  • In North America DoD appears to be a major if not the only customer requesting IPv6 ready products and services. IPv6 Capable Directive stated in DoD Memorandum of June 9th 2003 drives the entire North American transition. Beyond DoD organizations move slowly with no technical reasons to switch to IPv6 ("we have enough IPv4 addresses").
  • Wide North American IPv6 adoption will be driven by new applications leveraging IPv6 capabilities.
  • So far supply side of the business concentrates around a few areas such as:
    • Training and consulting on the protocol and IPv6 transition
    • IPv6 enabled hardware: routers, switches, servers, testers, printers, firewalls, hand held devices, cell phones, meters, sensors, etc.
    • Software: operation systems, firewalls, soft routers, wireless applications, and the like
    • IPv6 network access

We would like to stress the application aspect of IPv6 which presents a unique opportunity for investors. While telecommunication and cable industry struggle with dramatic changes in the distribution of voice and TV an opportunity presents itself for a new type of entity. Such Internet Applications and Services Provider (IASP) could leverage IPv6 by creating, hosting and offering network centric applications. Most of the promise appears to come from solutions where moving things exchange data via native IPv6 network. Anyone who is interested in such venue - please contact the author.

About the author

Peter Sherbin has 15 years of the telecom industry experience with global carriers and multinationals including AT&T, PTT Netherlands, British Telecom, GPT International, Bell Canada in areas spanning from Product Development / Management to Strategic Planning. He received his MBA from the CU at Denver, CO and his B.S. from Kiev State University.

With Bell Canada he has managed 100M Internet Access portfolio over the last few years. He currently assists Bell with market forecasting. Recently Peter has started UNET Advisors Inc. which provides IPv6 consulting. He can be reached at peter.sherbin@bell.ca.

The article expresses the personal opinion of the author with no obligations of any kind on Bell Canada's part.